brad brace

2/20/2017

H7N9

I-RISE

Bird flu is back. Chinese authorities are closing live poultry markets as H7N9 courses through the country, infecting 192 and killing 79 in January alone.

So far, this strain of avian flu appears to have been transmitted only through contact with live poultry, but there’s always a fear it will mutate and start passing between humans. That’s what really scares experts: the possibility of a sudden change that triggers faster spread between humans and leads to a pandemic.

A disease doesn’t count as a pandemic until it spreads worldwide – Ebola killed more than 11,000 people across West Africa before it was brought under control, and that was just an epidemic. The most modern pandemics include the Spanish influenza, circa 1918 (as many as 50 million killed), and HIV/AIDS (35 million dead).

As Chinese officials attempt to stem the latest bird flu outbreak, global public health officials are racing to get ahead of what they call the next “big one”: a disease that will kill tens of millions. It’s all about preparedness, and a large part of that is spotting outbreaks early, so action can be taken to contain any situation before it spirals out of control.

It’s anyone’s guess when and where the next major epidemic – or pandemic – might emerge. It could be a mutated version of avian flu, or perhaps something completely unseen before, like the mysterious illness with Ebola-like symptoms that struck out of the blue in South Sudan last year.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever

When a patient in Madrid died last September of a disease called Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, there was no shortage of headlines about the “new” deadly virus. But the disease has actually been around for years – it got the first part of its name when first reported in Crimea in 1944, and the second thanks to a 1969 spotting in Congo.

The last two words of the disease, abbreviated as CCHF, speak to the symptoms: fever, muscle aches, nausea, diarrhoea, bruising and bleeding (the list goes on), and eventually death in the second week of illness – about 30 percent of patients (sometimes more) succumb to the virus.

CCHF is found pretty much everywhere south of the 50th parallel north: Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East, and Asia. Humans tend to contract the virus through contact with the blood of an infected animal (itself having been bitten by infected ticks) – vets, people working in slaughterhouses, and farmers are typically most at risk.

Once in humans, the virus can be spread through contact with blood, secretions, bodily fluids, and the like. It has been contracted in hospitals thanks to poor sterilisation of equipment and reuse of needles.

The virus bothers researchers and doctors for a number of reasons, one of them cultural: it’s endemic in some Muslim countries where large-scale animal slaughter is part of celebrating (and feasting) for the holiday of Eid al-Adha.

Doctors in Pakistan, for example, have warned of a potential health catastrophe unless slaughtering practices change, as the feasting holiday will be in the summer for the next 10-15 years, coinciding with tick season and CCHF prevalence.

There are similar concerns in Afghanistan, where public health officials have been warning the public about using gloves and other protective clothing when handling animals.

There is no vaccine for Crimean-Congo, and there is no cure, although antiviral drugs have shown some promise. Nipah virus Tackling drought with emergency aid is not the answer

This one’s got a Hollywood hook: The 2011 film Stephen Soderbergh film Contagion is reportedly based on it. Spoiler alert. In the movie, Nipah causes a global pandemic. In reality, we’re far from that.

But the way Nipah got going in real life is paralleled in the film: Thanks to drought, deforestation and wildfire, large fruit bats that carry the virus found their natural habitats in Malaysia destroyed. So they moved to fruit trees that happened to be in fairly close proximity to pig farms.

The pigs ate fruit contaminated by bat urine and saliva, the virus spread quickly among livestock, and again farm workers were the first hit. This first outbreak in Malaysia in the late 1990s saw the country cull more than one million pigs: a major hit to the economy.

In its first appearance, Nipah killed 105 of 256 known infected people.

But humans can also get Nipah by drinking raw palm date sap, a delicacy in Bangladesh. It is believed to be the cause of regular seasonal outbreaks in that country. When the sap is harvested, it has already been infected by bats in the trees.

Nipah scares researchers because it kills quickly – nausea, fever, and vomiting, patients progress to a coma within 24-48 hours, and then die. It has also spread swiftly from rural areas to cities.

Once in humans, the virus is found in saliva, so it can kill caregivers and family members who share utensils and glasses, or hug and kiss their sick family members. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)

Bandied about as the next pandemic possibility for a while, MERS was first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012, although looking back researchers believe there were cases the same year in Jordan.

It’s deadly – a reported 36 percent of patients die – and looks to have come to humans via bats, again. There’s a pattern here: Bats carry a long list of killer viruses and likely triggered the Ebola outbreak as well as SARS and others.

MERS causes fever, cough, shortness of breath, and in more than one third of patients, death. A 2015 outbreak in South Korea killed 36, and caused serious panic. Thousands of schools were closed, and many businesses were hit hard as people were wary even of going outside, and many others were quarantined.

While MERS is deadlier than its cousin SARS, it is also less contagious. It is spread through close contact with an infected person, and most transmissions have been in healthcare settings. There’s no real evidence that it’s gone airborne – that’s always a major fear – but the possibility hasn’t been completely ruled out.

For now, there’s no reason to panic about MERS, but it’s always a worry during the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia, which sees some two million people converge in the country with the most cases.

Like the other diseases mentioned here, there’s no vaccine and there’s no treatment – it’s all about hygiene.

There are plenty of other scary killers out there, and researchers are both tracking the movement of viruses between species and attempting to figure out a key plot point: why exactly a virus goes airborne. One last top tip: keep a particular eye on influenza. It’s not exotic and everyone knows its name, but some form of the flu could easily become the next “big one”. Oh yes, and be careful of bats.

11/2/2013

Recent Films Studied

Filed under: culture,Film — admin @ 1:23 pm

• Holy Motors • The Lovers on the Bridge • The Widow of St. Pierre • Princesas • El Infierno • Bedevilled • Valentin • Which Way Home • Entre Nos • Innocent Voices • Y Tu Mamá También • Paris Was a Woman • The Beat Hotel • Salinger • Revolution: Season 1: • The Rundown • Year of the Fish • Little Moth • Owl and the Sparrow • Wonderful Town • The Overture • A Barefoot Dream • Balibo • The Shipping News • Reds • Days of Heaven • Mr. Bean: The Whole Bean: “Mr. Bean” • Lost in Translation • The Queen and I • Dear Murderer • The Naked City • The Conversation • Butterfly • Biutiful • Tetro • Essential Killing • The Mill & The Cross • Le Quattro Volte • Mafioso • Point Blank • Silmido • The Housemaid • No One Knows About Persian Cats • Hank: Five Years from the Brink • Journey of Hope • Turtles Can Fly • Times and Winds • Bliss • Or, My Treasure • Jaffa • The Wedding Song • Bedwin Hacker • Son of Man • Dreams of Dust • Beat the Drum • Lucky • Men at Work • The Deserted Station • Baran • A Time for Drunken Horses • Sounds of Sand • Mommo: The Bogeyman • Before Your Eyes • Dust of Life • Rampage • The Road • Dragon • Ichi • The Assailant • Captains of the Sand • Antonia • Only When I Dance • Behind the Sun • Forbidden to Forbid • The Samba Poet • Neighboring Sounds • A Bottle in the Gaza Sea • 21 Up South Africa: Mandela’s Childrenf• Holy Motors • The Lovers on the Bridge • The Widow of St. Pierre • Princesas • El Infierno • Bedevilled • Valentin • Which Way Home • Entre Nos • Innocent Voices • Y Tu Mamá También • Paris Was a Woman • The Beat Hotel • Salinger • Revolution: Season 1: • The Rundown • Year of the Fish • Little Moth • Owl and the Sparrow • Wonderful Town • The Overture • A Barefoot Dream • Balibo • The Shipping News • Reds • Days of Heaven • Mr. Bean: The Whole Bean: “Mr. Bean” • Lost in Translation • The Queen and I • Dear Murderer • The Naked City • The Conversation • Butterfly • Biutiful • Tetro • Essential Killing • The Mill & The Cross • Le Quattro Volte • Mafioso • Point Blank • Silmido • The Housemaid • No One Knows About Persian Cats • Hank: Five Years from the Brink • Journey of Hope • Turtles Can Fly • Times and Winds • Bliss • Or, My Treasure • Jaffa • The Wedding Song • Bedwin Hacker • Son of Man • Dreams of Dust • Beat the Drum • Lucky • Men at Work • The Deserted Station • Baran • A Time for Drunken Horses • Sounds of Sand • Mommo: The Bogeyman • Before Your Eyes • Dust of Life • Rampage • The Road • Dragon • Ichi • The Assailant • Captains of the Sand • Antonia • Only When I Dance • Behind the Sun • Forbidden to Forbid • The Samba Poet • Neighboring Sounds • A Bottle in the Gaza Sea • 21 Up South Africa: Mandela’s Children • Miss Bala • Anatomy of a Murder • Local Color • Lady Terminator • V for Vendetta • For Ever Mozart • The Cow • Unknown Pleasures • The Bad and the Beautiful • Balseros • Imitation of Life • Network • The Postman Always Rings Twice • Palace of the Winds • Red • Lincoln • Wilde • A Clockwork Orange • Still Life • In the Realms of the Unreal • BaadAsssss Cinema • Sing Faster: The Stagehands’ Ring Cycle • Pure Brazil: Bossa in Rio • The Rules of the Game • From Here to Eternity • Down by Law • The Conformist • Zabriskie Point • Le Amiche • The Passenger • Red Desert • Blow-Up • Summer of Sam • Lawrence of Arabia • Of Gods and Men • Where the Green Ants Dream • Tomorrow • The Bad Sleep Well • 10,000 Black Men Named George • The Blue Lagoon • Mutiny on the Bounty • Toka Toka: Forbidden Fiji • Reel Paradise • 24 City • Slumdog Millionaire • Raise the Red Lantern

2/11/2013

Black Hollywood

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1/7/2013

Recent Films Studied

Filed under: Film — admin @ 6:06 am

• The Rules of the Game • From Here to Eternity • Down by Law • The Conformist • Zabriskie Point • Le Amiche • The Passenger • Red Desert • Blow Up • Summer of Sam • Lawrence of Arabia • Of Gods and Men • Where the Green Ants Dream • Tomorrow • The Bad Sleep Well • 10,000 Black Men Named George • Manda Bala • The Devil’s Miner • Voices of the Andes • Khadak • The Turin Horse • Once Upon a Time in Anatolia • Oslo, August 31st • Pina • Escape by Night • Shoeshine • Forbidden Games • Blame It on Fidel • The Grocer’s Son • Roads to Koktebel • How I Ended This Summer • The Island • The Return • Intimate Stories • The Aura • Even the Rain • Cocalero • Madeinusa • The Milk of Sorrow • Amador • At Close Range • Manufactured Landscapes • Strand: Under the Dark Cloth • The Modernism of Julius Shulman • Eames: The Architect and The Painter • Helvetica • Urbanized • Indie Game: The Movie • Jiro Dreams of Sushi • The Go Master • Samaritan Girl • Paju • Jan Dara • Fidel • Will the Real Terrorist Please Stand Up • Speaking Freely: Vol. 4: Chalmers Johnson • Power and Terror: Noam Chomsky • Speaking Freely: Vol. 2: Susan George S

10/10/2011

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9/10/2011

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4/16/2011

Protected: Island 7.0 (Hateruma, Japan) tsunami

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4/5/2011

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4/3/2011

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11/25/2010

611-616

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recent films studied

Filed under: Film — bbrace @ 4:46 pm

Black Girl • • Breathless • • Summer Hours • • The Secret of the Grain •• Séraphine • • The Spirit of the Beehive • • The Virgin Spring • • TheCool School • • Beautiful Losers • • The Art of the Steal • • Childrenof Paradise • • The Charcoal People • • The Girlfriend Experience • •Jules and Jim • • The Buddha • • Art 21: Ssn 1 & 2: Place • •Independent Lens: Between the Folds • • Rashomon • • La Femme Nikita • •Hidden Fortress • • Amarcord • • Onibaba • • Black Orpheus • • Tokyo! •• Ivan the Terrible: Part 1 (2 episodes) • • THX 1138 • • Rembrandt’sJ’accuse • • Taxi Driver • • Into the Arms of Strangers • • AkiraKurosawa’s Dreams • • The Ramen Girl • • Deadline • • The Year MyParents Went on Vacation • • The Weather Underground • • The BitterTears of Petra Von Kant • • In the Realms of the Unreal • • DoctorZhivago • • The Wind Will Carry Us • • Balseros • • 6ixtynin9 • • Bus174 • • Into Great Silence • • The Devil Came on Horseback • • Girl 27 •• Bird • • Millennium Mambo • • The Secrets of Glacier National Park • •Sanshiro Sugata • • Floating Weeds • • The Ballad ofNarayama  • • Warm Water Under a Red Bridge • • Guide • •Stranger than Paradise • • Ram Aur Shyam • • The Naked Kiss • • Underworld Beauty • • Youth of the Beast • • FightingElegy • • Tokyo Trash Baby • • Gate of Flesh • • Proof •• The Legend of Suriyothai • • Battle Royale • • Sympathy forthe Underdog • • 2012 • • The Yakuza Papers: Disc 1 • • TheNight of the Hunter • • Jackie Brown • • A Place in the Sun • • Splendor in the Grass • • • •

11/18/2009

recent films studied

Filed under: Film,General — admin @ 5:38 am

* Talk to Her * Hiroshima Mon Amour * Mughal-E-Azam * Shree 420 *
Barsaat * That Obscure Object of Desire * The Decalogue: Disc 3: Films
VIII – X * Lisbon Story * Speaking in Strings * Paris, Texas *
Songcatcher * The Fall of the House of Usher * The Tin Drum * Berlin
Alexanderplatz: Disc 7: Bonus * Berlin Alexanderplatz: Disc 6 * Berlin
Alexanderplatz: Disc 5 * Berlin Alexanderplatz: Disc 4 * Berlin
Alexanderplatz: Disc 3 * Berlin Alexanderplatz: Disc 2 * Berlin
Alexanderplatz: Disc 1 * Sunrise * The Handmaid’s Tale * The Decalogue:
Disc 2: Films IV – VII * Hail Mary * Le Petit Soldat * Steamroller and
the Violin * Disappearing World: The Lau of Malaita * The Thin Red Line
* South Pacific * Tsotsi * The Silence * The Wages of Fear * Night and
Fog * Kaagaz Ke Phool * L’Argent * Maria Full of Grace * Manda Bala *
Ace in the Hole * Sunset Boulevard * The BRD Trilogy: Veronika Voss *
Amores Perros * BRD Trilogy: Marriage of Maria Braun * Dead Man * La
Jetee / Sans Soleil * Au Hasard Balthazar * Pickup on South Street * A
Man Escaped * Bay of Angels * The Letter * Pickpocket * The Adventures
of Prince Achmed * Pitfall

11/9/2009

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10/19/2009

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